🍁TARIFFWARS.CA

Canada's Trade War Tracker

THE FIGHT FOR CANADA'S ECONOMY

Tracking every tariff, every counterpunch, every impact — province by province. Independent. Canadian. Updated daily.

Updated July 14, 2026 · Data sourced from Government of Canada, USTR, CBSA, court filings

Annual Two-Way Trade

$900B+

US-Canada goods & services

CUSMA-Protected

~88%

Canadian exports — agreement in annual review cycle after July 1, 2026 renewal failure; expires July 2036 if not extended

Household Impact

~$1,300–$1,700/yr

Canadian households (Yale Budget Lab / BoC, Apr 2026)

Steel/Aluminum Tariff

15–50% (tiered)

Section 232; 50% primary, 25% derivatives, 15% ag equip — no CUSMA exemption (Apr 6, 2026)

Jobs Affected

51,000–58,000

Manufacturing losses over 12 months

IEEPA Refunds

$81B issued

Treasury FY2026 first 9 months (Oct 2025–Jun 2026); $166B total eligible; CAPE portal processing (Newsweek / Treasury, Jul 14, 2026)

⚖️ Legal Update

Section 122 — Section 122 (Proclamation 11012) was imposed February 24, 2026 at 10% ad valorem — the statutory maximum under 19 U.S.C. § 2132 is 15% and the hard 150-day expiry falls at 12:01 AM EDT on July 24, 2026, a limit that cannot be extended by executive action. The Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 on May 7, 2026 (State of Washington et al. v. Trump) that Section 122 tariffs are unlawful, but the Federal Circuit granted an administrative stay on May 12, 2026 meaning tariff collection continues for all non-plaintiff importers during the appeal. USTR is racing to finalize Section 301 forced-labor replacement tariffs (10% for 14 economies including Canada, 12.5% for 46 others) by July 20, 2026 to ensure tariff continuity before the July 24 statutory expiry.

⚡ Estimated Cumulative Cost to Canadian Households

CAD

Day 0 of the trade warSince March 4, 2025+$626/second

𝕏 Post on X

Methodology

~$1,300/yr avg per household (Yale Budget Lab / BoC models, Apr 2026) × 15.6M Canadian households. Household costs only — GDP contraction, investment freezes and business losses not included. This is the floor.

Today's Briefing

📡 Daily Briefing

TODAY'S TRADE WAR UPDATE

AI-generated from verified sources · Editorially reviewed for accuracy and insight · Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Generating today's briefing...

Provincial Impact

🗺️ The Map

EVERY PROVINCE HAS A TARIFF STORY

Click any province or territory to see how tariffs are hitting your region.

The Escalation Record

🥊 Canada's Counterpunch

HOW CANADA IS FIGHTING BACK

Every retaliatory tariff, trade ban, support program and diplomatic move — most recent first.

⚖️Jul 6, 2026

US Congress Introduces CANADA Act; Targets Provincial Liquor Bans

Rep. Claudia Tenney introduces the Combating Attacks on National Alcoholic Drinks by Allies Act (CANADA Act), seeking a USTR Section 301 investigation of Canadian provincial bans on US beer, wine and spirits imposed March 2025. US wine exports to Canada collapsed 78% (from $460M to $103M annually) following the bans. If USTR investigates and confirms discriminatory practices, potential outcome is new tariffs or import restrictions on Canadian goods beyond beverages. WineAmerica backs the bill.

Jun 30, 2026

Canada Digital Services Tax Takes Effect Despite Trump Threat

Canada's Digital Services Tax came into effect June 30, 2026 despite Trump's June 26 threat of 100% tariffs on any country implementing such a tax. The DST triggered Trump's June 27 suspension of all trade negotiations with Canada. The Carney government defended the measure as sovereign tax policy. No formal retaliatory tariff proclamation has been issued by the US as of July 10, 2026 but the threat remains active.

🤝Jun 5, 2026

Canadian Negotiators Brief Advisory Council on CUSMA Progress

Trade minister LeBlanc and chief negotiator Charette briefed business advisory council on Washington talks. Key takeaway: USTR 'wants to find a way' to keep CUSMA alive but Section 232 (steel/aluminum) carve-out remains unresolved. No timeline for final agreement announced.

Jun 3, 2026

Canada to Propose Forced Labor Legislation Within Weeks

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada will propose new legislation strengthening forced labor enforcement within weeks. Move signals willingness to align with USTR objectives and potentially pre-empt Section 301 tariff imposition. Legislation to address supply chain diligence and import bans on forced labor goods. Cabinet to receive details pending legislative drafting.

⚖️Jun 3, 2026

Prime Minister Carney Pledges Forced Labor Legislation

PM Carney announced that Canada will introduce new legislation on forced labor in supply chains within weeks, aligning with US Section 301 investigation findings. Goal: strengthen enforcement and avoid tariffs under new Section 301 regime. Carney asserts Canada's current laws are 'very strong' but will be enhanced.

📋Jun 3, 2026

Canada Files CUSMA Renewal Request

Canada formally requests renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement ahead of the July 1 trilateral review deadline. Filing triggers 60-day consultation period under Article 34.7. Canada seeking comprehensive renewal rather than sector-by-sector negotiations, positioning for unified North American approach despite ongoing bilateral tensions.

Jun 2, 2026

Prime Minister Carney Signals Forced Labor Law Strengthening

Federal government commits to introducing new legislation on forced labor enforcement in supply chains within coming weeks, aiming to strengthen Canada's competitive position ahead of July 7 USTR forced labor tariff hearings. Move signals proactive engagement with US concerns rather than reactive tariff retaliation.

Apr 22, 2026

Carney Wins Majority — Stronger Hand

PM Carney wins majority government running on a Canada-first trade platform. 'We are not a supplicant' — Carney. Majority gives Canada a more unified negotiating position heading into the July 1 CUSMA review. New trade advisory council announced.

📜Apr 16, 2026

Canada Seeks Comprehensive Trade Deal

LeBlanc says Canada wants a full agreement, not one-off sector deals. Refuses partial agreements leaving steel, aluminum and autos for separate negotiations. Position strengthened by Carney's election majority.

⚖️Apr 15, 2026

6-Month Manufacturing Input Pause

Canada announces 6-month remission on retaliatory tariffs for specified manufacturing inputs (~April 15 – Oct 15, 2026). Performance-based automotive remission for companies maintaining Canadian production. LETL begins accepting applications.

🤝Mar 6, 2026

Talks Resume After 4-Month Freeze

Trade Minister LeBlanc meets USTR Greer in Washington — first formal contact since Oct 2025 breakdown. No formal negotiation process announced. USTR later states Canada is 'lagging behind' Mexico.

📋Jan 2026

Manufacturing Remissions Expire

General manufacturing remissions on US steel/aluminum inputs expire. Auto, aerospace and public health sector remissions extended through Jun 2026. Forces manufacturers to source non-US or absorb costs.

🔩Dec 2025

Steel Derivatives Protection

Canada imposes 25% tariff on steel derivatives from ALL countries (not just US) — doors, windows, fasteners. Non-FTA steel over-quota tariffs set at 50%. Quotas slashed to 20% of 2024 levels.

⚖️Sep 2025

Strategic Tariff Rollback

Canada removes retaliatory tariffs on most consumer goods to ease domestic costs. Steel, aluminum and auto counter-tariffs remain. Pragmatic move to reduce self-inflicted pain while keeping strategic pressure.

🛡️Jun 2025

Federal Work-Sharing Expanded

Government expands Work-Sharing program eligibility to cover tariff-affected workers. Supports up to 26,000 workers. Includes seasonal workers and non-profits.

🍁Apr 2025

Buy Canadian Campaign Launches

Federal and provincial governments launch coordinated 'Buy Canadian' campaigns. Consumer sentiment shifts measurably — polling shows 67% of Canadians actively avoiding US products.

🚗Apr 2025

25% Auto Counter-Tariff

Canada imposes 25% tariff on non-CUSMA US-origin vehicles entering Canada. Targets American brands assembled outside CUSMA compliance.

🍷Mar 25, 2025

LCBO Pulls All US Alcohol

Ontario's LCBO removes 3,600 US alcohol products from 35 states. $965M/yr in sales wiped out overnight. BC, Nova Scotia and other provinces follow with similar measures.

🔴Mar 4, 2025

25% Counter-Tariffs Activated

Canada imposes 25% retaliatory tariffs on US steel, aluminum and consumer goods. Immediate response to IEEPA tariffs taking effect.

The Escalation Record

CANADA vs. UNITED STATES — MOVE BY MOVE

Every escalation, retaliation and pivot since March 4, 2025. Tap any card to expand.

🍁 Canada

United States

Canada's Counterpunches

Jul 6, 2026

⚖️ US Congress Introduces CANADA Act; Targets Provincial Liquor Bans

tariff

Jun 30, 2026

Canada Digital Services Tax Takes Effect Despite Trump Threat

diplomatic

Jun 5, 2026

🤝 Canadian Negotiators Brief Advisory Council on CUSMA Progress

negotiation

Jun 3, 2026

Canada to Propose Forced Labor Legislation Within Weeks

diplomatic

Jun 3, 2026

⚖️ Prime Minister Carney Pledges Forced Labor Legislation

diplomatic

Jun 3, 2026

📋 Canada Files CUSMA Renewal Request

diplomatic

Jun 2, 2026

Prime Minister Carney Signals Forced Labor Law Strengthening

diplomatic

Apr 22, 2026

Carney Wins Majority — Stronger Hand

diplomatic

Apr 16, 2026

📜 Canada Seeks Comprehensive Trade Deal

diplomatic

Apr 15, 2026

⚖️ 6-Month Manufacturing Input Pause

adjust

Mar 6, 2026

🤝 Talks Resume After 4-Month Freeze

diplomatic

Jan 2026

📋 Manufacturing Remissions Expire

adjust

Dec 2025

🔩 Steel Derivatives Protection

tariff

Sep 2025

⚖️ Strategic Tariff Rollback

adjust

Jun 2025

🛡️ Federal Work-Sharing Expanded

support

Apr 2025

🍁 Buy Canadian Campaign Launches

campaign

Apr 2025

🚗 25% Auto Counter-Tariff

tariff

Mar 25, 2025

🍷 LCBO Pulls All US Alcohol

ban

Mar 4, 2025

🔴 25% Counter-Tariffs Activated

tariff

US Escalations

Jul 14, 2026

🍄 Commerce Department Issues Preliminary Anti-Dumping Determination on Canadian Fresh Mushrooms

escalation

Jul 7, 2026

⚖️ USTR Holds Public Hearing on Forced-Labor Section 301 Tariffs; Awaits Final Determinations

escalation

Jul 1, 2026

📋 USTR Greer Refuses CUSMA 16-Year Extension

escalation

Jul 1, 2026

EU-US Reciprocal Trade Deal Takes Effect at 15% Ceiling

diplomatic

Jun 27, 2026

🚫 Trump Suspends All Trade Negotiations with Canada Over Digital Services Tax

escalation

Jun 26, 2026

💻 Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on Digital Service Taxes

escalation

Jun 10, 2026

🇲🇽 Trump States He Will Not Renew USMCA

escalation

Jun 8, 2026

⚙️ Section 232 Agricultural and Industrial Equipment Tariff Adjustments

de_escalation

Jun 8, 2026

⚖️ 'Composed Entirely' Threshold Lowered: 95% to 85% by Weight

escalation

Jun 8, 2026

🔗 New Section 232 Derivative Articles Added: Wire, Cable, Chain

escalation

Jun 5, 2026

🏛️ Court of International Trade Allows CBP Witness Substitution

legal

Jun 3, 2026

⚖️ US Section 301 Forced-Labour Tariffs Target 60 Nations

escalation

Jun 2, 2026

⚖️ USTR Confirms Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs: 60 Economies, 10–12.5%

escalation

Jun 2, 2026

🤝 US-China Board of Trade Public Comment Opens

diplomatic

Jun 1, 2026

🌎 USTR Section 301 Brazil Tariffs: 25% on Most Products

escalation

May 30, 2026

🤝 US-Mexico CUSMA Talks First Round Concludes

diplomatic

May 29, 2026

🔍 USTR Initiates Section 301 Vietnam IP Investigation

escalation

May 28, 2026

🇲🇽 US-Mexico CUSMA Review Negotiations Begin

diplomatic

May 27, 2026

💰 $20.6B IEEPA Refunds Approved; CBP Admits Processing Errors

legal

May 20, 2026

🤝 EU-US Provisional Agreement Reached

diplomatic

May 20, 2026

🏛️ CIT Denies Government Stay Motion

legal

May 18, 2026

🍄 Countervailing Duties on Canadian Fresh Mushrooms

escalation

May 14, 2026

🤝 Trump-Xi Beijing Summit

diplomatic

May 12, 2026

🏛️ Federal Circuit Stays CIT Ruling

legal

May 7, 2026

⚖️ CIT Rules Section 122 Unlawful 2-1

legal

May 7, 2026

EU Auto Tariff Deadline Extended to July 4

escalation

May 6, 2026

📋 Section 301 China Four-Year Reviews Launched

legal

May 2, 2026

🛢️ China Blocks US Sanctions Compliance

escalation

May 1, 2026

🚗 25% EU Vehicle Tariffs Announced

escalation

Apr 20, 2026

💰 IEEPA Refund Portal (CAPE) Goes Live

legal

Apr 10, 2026

⚖️ CIT Hears Section 122 Challenges

legal

Apr 2, 2026

⚙️ Metals Tariffs Restructured: Tiered 15–50% on Full Value

escalation

Mar 2026

🔍 Section 301 Probes Launched

escalation

Feb 24, 2026

⚖️ Section 122 Enacted: 10%

escalation

Feb 20, 2026

🏛️ Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs 6-3

legal

May 2025

📦 De Minimis Eliminated

escalation

Apr 3, 2025

🚗 Auto Tariffs: 25%

escalation

Mar 12, 2025

⚙️ Steel & Aluminum: Initial 50% Rate

escalation

Mar 4, 2025

🚨 IEEPA Emergency Tariffs: 25%

escalation

Canada's 19 responses to 39 US escalations reflects a strategy of measured, targeted retaliation — not matching every move dollar-for-dollar.

🇺🇸 US Tariff Rate Context

Key US rates affecting Canada right now

→ Full rate tables at TariffCharts.com

Section 12210%

Under appeal — Federal Circuit stay in place; expires Jul 24

Steel 23250%

No CUSMA exemption — all Canadian steel imports subject to full rate

Autos 23225%

CUSMA US-content portions exempt; remainder taxed

Aluminum 23250%

No CUSMA exemption despite Canada being largest US supplier

Practical Intel

🔍 Cross-Border Intelligence

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR WALLET

Practical impacts on shopping, travel, jobs and daily life in Canada.

📦Online Shopping from the US

Changed

De minimis duty-free threshold eliminated. ALL cross-border purchases now face tariffs regardless of value. That $20 Amazon.com order? Duties apply. Ship to a Canadian address or use a cross-border service that handles customs.

🛒Grocery Prices

Up 3–8%

Imported produce, packaged goods and anything with US-sourced ingredients costs more. Tariff pass-through to grocery shelves is estimated at 3–8% on affected items. Buy Canadian alternatives where possible — many exist.

💵The Canadian Dollar

Weakened

Trade uncertainty has pushed the loonie down 5–10% against the US dollar. Your money buys less in the US than 18 months ago. Factor this into any cross-border travel, shopping or business.

⛽Gas Prices

+$0.05–$0.15/L

10% tariff on Canadian energy exports affects the broader North American energy market. Pump prices have increased on both sides of the border in some regions.

✈️Travelling to the US

More Expensive

Weaker dollar + higher US prices = significantly reduced purchasing power. A weekend in Buffalo costs 15–20% more than it did in 2024. Border wait times also up at major crossings.

🚗Car Buying

+$3,000–$8,000

Whether built in Canada, the US or imported — car prices are up across the board. Parts cross the border up to 8 times during assembly. Every crossing adds cost. New car prices reflect cumulative tariff impact.

🏠Home Renovations

Up 10–25%

Steel products (50% on primary, 25% on derivatives), lumber (+10% Sec 232 on existing duties), cabinets and vanities (25%). April 2 metals restructuring lowered some derivative costs but raised primary metal costs. A $50K renovation now costs $55–62K.

💼Your Job

Sector-Dependent

Manufacturing, resources and export-dependent industries are most exposed. Check if your employer qualifies for federal Work-Sharing support. Tech, healthcare and domestic services sectors are less directly impacted.

🍄Canadian Mushroom Exports (HS 0709.51)

AD 8.26% + CVD 1.6–5% (preliminary)

Commerce Department released preliminary anti-dumping determination July 14, 2026 at 8.26% for most fresh mushrooms — below the 44% sought by the US coalition. Combined with preliminary CVD rates of 1.62–4.97% from May 18, 2026, Canadian growers face a stacked preliminary tariff burden. Investigations initiated January 6, 2026; final determinations pending.

📋CUSMA Review

Renewal failed July 1 — annual reviews begin

USTR Greer announced July 1, 2026 that the US will not agree to a 16-year CUSMA extension. Canada had requested extension June 1, 2026; Mexico also publicly supported it. Trump suspended all Canada trade negotiations June 27 over Canada's Digital Services Tax. CUSMA remains in force but enters annual reviews rather than a new 16-year term. The agreement expires July 2036 if no extension is agreed during the annual review cycle.

✊ What You Can Do